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Fall 2025
By Torreon Realtor: Katie Ciolek
As we move into Fall of 2025, I'm excited to share some significant developments in our Show Low real estate market that present exceptional opportunities for buyers and require strategic adjustments for sellers. Having helped countless families navigate this beautiful mountain community through various market cycles, I can tell you that what we're experiencing right now represents the most buyer-favorable conditions we've seen in years.
The Reality: This is Officially a Buyer's Market
What I'm seeing in our market right now is something I haven't witnessed in years: Show Low has genuinely shifted into a buyer's market, and the numbers tell the whole story. With 362 active listings and a 7.93-month absorption rate, we're well into buyer's market territory (anything above 6 months favors buyers). This represents a dramatic 27% increase in absorption rate compared to last year.
For perspective, we went from having limited choices and quick sales to having abundant inventory where homes are staying on the market an average of 81 days. This isn't a gradual shift – it's a fundamental change in market dynamics that savvy buyers and realistic sellers need to understand.
What the Numbers Really Tell Us
Current Inventory Reality: We now have 362 active listings compared to 315 this time last year – that's a significant increase giving buyers unprecedented choice and negotiating power.
Pricing Pressure: The median list price for active properties is $432,450, down nearly 9% from last year's $475,000. This isn't coincidence – it's sellers adapting to market reality.
Sale Prices: The median sale price in June was $416,000, while the average sale price was $513,511. However, achieving these prices requires strategic positioning because buyers now have options.
Time on Market: Properties are averaging 81 days on market, with the median at 50 days. In a seller's market, we'd see 15-30 days. This extended timeline gives buyers leverage they haven't had in years.
Sale-to-List Price Performance: Currently at 96.2%, this means most sellers are accepting offers below their asking price – a clear indicator of buyer negotiating strength.
For Buyers: Your Market Has Arrived
If you've been waiting for the right time to buy in Show Low, this is it. Here's what this buyer's market means for you:
Negotiating Power: With 7.93 months of supply, you can negotiate not just on price, but on terms, closing costs, repairs, and contingencies. Sellers who want to move their properties are motivated to work with serious buyers.
Time to Decide: Gone are the days of needing to make instant decisions. You can thoroughly evaluate properties, conduct proper inspections, and make informed choices without pressure.
Price Advantages: The 9% decrease in median list prices from last year means you're shopping in a more realistic pricing environment. Many sellers have already adjusted their expectations downward.
Selection: With 362 active listings, you have genuine choice across all price ranges and property types. This level of inventory gives you the luxury of finding exactly what you want.
For those Phoenix and Tucson residents I work with who are seeking escape from those 115-degree days, our elevation at 6,400 feet continues to provide that coveted temperature relief, and now you can secure your mountain retreat with significantly more leverage than you've had in years.
For Sellers: Market Reality Requires Strategic Response
If you're thinking about selling in today's market, I want you to understand what's happening so you can make informed decisions:
Aggressive Pricing is Essential: The data shows sellers who price aggressively are the ones getting contracts. With 362 competing properties, overpricing means sitting on the market for months while watching other homes sell around you.
Professional Presentation is Critical: In a buyer's market, your home must stand out. Working with a realtor who provides professional staging, photography, and comprehensive marketing isn't a luxury – it's essential for competing against 361 other options.
Flexibility Wins: Buyers in this market expect sellers to be accommodating on repairs, closing timelines, and terms. Inflexibility will cost you both time and money.
Price Reductions Work: The most successful sellers are those who price right initially or make meaningful reductions quickly. Small, incremental price drops in this market often prove ineffective.
Price Range Analysis: Where the Opportunities Are
Under $400,000: Still competitive but with more inventory than recent years. Properly priced homes in this range move within 30-45 days.
$400,000-$500,000: This range offers the best balance for buyers, with substantial inventory and negotiation opportunities.
$500,000-$700,000: Significant buyer advantages here, with many sellers motivated to negotiate on both price and terms.
Above $700,000: The luxury segment is experiencing the most dramatic shift, with extended marketing times requiring aggressive pricing strategies.
Investment and Second Home Perspective
For investors and second-home buyers, this market presents compelling opportunities. The combination of increased inventory, motivated sellers, and still-strong rental demand creates favorable acquisition conditions. However, success requires understanding that the easy appreciation of recent years has been replaced by a market where strategic buying matters.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Happened
This shift isn't unique to Show Low – it reflects broader market corrections across Arizona's mountain communities. After years of unsustainable price growth and limited inventory, we're experiencing a healthy rebalancing. Interest rates, economic uncertainty, and increased construction have all contributed to creating more balanced conditions.
What I'm Watching For
Several factors will influence how long these buyer-favorable conditions persist:
- Seasonal demand patterns through fall and winter
- Interest rate movements and their impact on buyer activity
- New construction completions adding to inventory
- Phoenix/Tucson heat patterns driving escape-home demand
My Professional Assessment
Having worked through multiple market cycles in Show Low, I can tell you this represents a real opportunity for well-positioned buyers and an important adjustment period for sellers. The market has genuinely shifted, and success now requires adapting strategies to where we are today rather than hoping for a return to the seller's market conditions we experienced in recent years.
For buyers, this is an excellent time to act thoughtfully with proper representation. For sellers, this is the time to price strategically and market professionally. Waiting to see what happens – rather than adapting to current conditions – typically proves costly in buyer's markets.
Strategic Recommendations
For Buyers:
- Get pre-approved and move confidently when you find the right property
- Negotiate comprehensively on price, terms, and conditions
- Take time for thorough inspections and due diligence
- Consider properties that have been on market 60+ days for maximum leverage
For Sellers:
- Price below recent comparables to generate immediate activity
- Work with a realtor who provides professional presentation and marketing
- Be prepared to negotiate on multiple fronts
- Consider all reasonable offers seriously
The Bottom Line
Show Low's market has clearly shifted to favor buyers, with 7.93 months of supply, 362 active listings, and sellers accepting an average of 96.2% of list price. This isn't a temporary blip – it's a meaningful market correction that creates opportunities for those who understand how to navigate it.
Whether you're looking to buy your dream mountain home or sell to capitalize on recent gains, understanding and adapting to these new market dynamics is essential for success.
Ready to navigate Show Low's buyer's market with expert guidance? This market rewards those who understand the dynamics and act strategically. Let's discuss how these conditions create opportunities for your specific real estate goals. Reach out to Torreon Realtor Katie Ciolek at katieciolekaz@gmail.com or 480-754-9880
ABOUT TORREON
Desert Troon Companies created the residential and recreational community of Torreon in the pristine forests of Show Low, Arizona just three-hours from Phoenix or Tucson. It’s an easy weekend escape and a close-by vacation sanctuary with a variety of real estate offerings from ready-to-build lots, single family homes and condos, to fully furnished villas. Torreon Golf Club’s 36 holes of championship golf, designed by internationally acclaimed golf course architect Robert Von Hagge and his partners Mike Smelek and Rick Baril, is one of Arizona’s most exhilarating and picturesque golf experiences. Come to play golf, ski, hike, fish, play pickleball, ride bikes, gather with friends and family or grab a bite or drink in the award-winning Torreon Grille. Torreon offers mild four seasons with summer temperatures in the 80s. Visit https://www.torreon.com/ to learn more.